Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.563221 22.450882 26.769338 31.896466 37.790897 44.328190 52.098643
2025-02-16 12.920696 17.973943 24.210995 32.359360 42.597462 54.903239 70.667352
2025-02-23 9.580079 14.935122 22.121146 32.218806 45.759879 62.989906 86.227244
2025-03-02 7.231006 12.505629 20.130969 31.539754 47.694738 69.226547 99.479075
2025-03-09 5.728153 10.893221 18.875488 31.488448 50.192266 76.099404 113.734266
2025-03-16 4.239385 8.926755 16.697053 29.679588 49.839014 78.834032 122.329599
2025-03-23 3.626847 8.291795 16.466401 30.725517 53.651749 87.562025 139.642713
2025-03-30 2.902987 7.271280 15.403109 30.252916 55.013317 92.706694 152.000450
2025-04-06 2.594784 6.991858 15.575591 31.813458 59.643907 102.932068 172.242406
2025-04-13 1.905150 5.720504 13.700834 29.572985 57.842197 103.134758 177.424317
2025-04-20 1.633056 5.318203 13.426879 30.145028 60.739174 110.777954 194.227285
2025-04-27 1.427165 5.021070 13.312690 30.982086 64.120496 119.331396 212.776240
2025-05-04 1.198020 4.632407 13.019115 31.599135 67.451446 128.463754 233.478069
2025-05-11 1.002170 4.276384 12.749123 32.263064 70.987532 138.261777 255.948450
2025-05-18 0.800075 3.817249 12.141789 32.137554 73.020813 145.606472 274.755296
2025-05-25 0.615162 3.324147 11.336870 31.460932 73.907767 150.976802 290.497413
2025-06-01 0.491635 2.986855 10.852279 31.409805 75.975644 158.484973 310.102810
2025-06-08 0.343095 2.450890 9.685595 29.604627 74.331574 159.211023 318.140350
2025-06-15 0.296389 2.338969 9.714898 30.648426 78.612148 170.921325 345.602076
2025-06-22 0.226417 2.059919 9.164107 30.176786 79.646033 176.649855 362.804592
2025-06-29 0.204335 2.028362 9.399060 31.734164 85.149322 191.021697 395.827829
2025-07-06 0.132155 1.620221 8.253488 29.498243 82.137882 189.006275 399.441871
2025-07-13 0.109136 1.516665 8.152005 30.069118 85.440511 199.329017 425.745050